By using this site, you agree to the Privacy Policy and Terms of Use.
Accept

Science, Space & Technology

Space Science Digital
Contact
Search
  • Home
  • Environment

    Track down a trio of great double stars – Astronomy Now

    February 27, 2023

    ‘Oumuamua a comet? Avi Loeb responds

    March 24, 2023

    Neptune Trojans now seen as redder

    April 11, 2023

    Early-universe prequel to a huge galaxy cluster

    May 3, 2023
  • Space Flight

    SpaceX launches v1.5 satellites from Vandenberg following debut of Starlink v2

    March 3, 2023

    Northern lights: The best pictures of the aurora taken across the UK

    February 28, 2023

    SpaceX Cargo Dragon spacecraft lifts off from Florida

    March 14, 2023

    Life on Titan: Quantum effects could be key to the chemistry of life on Saturn’s moon

    March 18, 2023
  • Cosmology

    The Sky This Month March 2023

    March 1, 2023

    Explore little-known winter treats in the constellation Taurus

    February 8, 2023

    A Human Migration to Space is NOT so Inevitable, says New Research

    March 13, 2023

    Potentially Active Volcanoes Have Been Found on Venus

    March 16, 2023
  • Latest
  • About Us
Reading: Will asteroid 2023DW strike Earth on Valentine’s Day 2046?
Share
Aa
Space Science DigitalSpace Science Digital
  • Environment
  • Space Flight
  • Cosmology
  • Technology
Search
  • Home
  • Categories
    • Environment
    • Technology
    • Cosmology
    • Space Flight
  • More Foxiz
    • Blog Index
    • Forums
    • Complaint
    • Sitemap
Follow US
© 2023 Space Science Digital. All Rights Reserved.
Space Science Digital > Blog > Astronomy > Will asteroid 2023DW strike Earth on Valentine’s Day 2046?
Astronomy

Will asteroid 2023DW strike Earth on Valentine’s Day 2046?

By Aimee Daly March 9, 2023 8 Min Read
Share

[ad_1]

Contents
More on asteroid 2023DWCurrently a 1 on the Torino scaleMore objects on the Torino scale in the futureKelly Kizer WhittAbout the Author:

We’ve been tracking a new asteroid named 2023 DW that has a very small chance of impacting Earth in 2046. Often when new objects are first discovered, it takes several weeks of data to reduce the uncertainties and adequately predict their orbits years into the future. (1/2) pic.twitter.com/SaLC0AUSdP

— NASA Asteroid Watch (@AsteroidWatch) March 7, 2023

On February 27, 2023, astronomers discovered a new asteroid that they’ve labeled 2023DW. At this moment, ESA’s Near-Earth Objects Coordination Center is listing the asteroid as having a 1-in-560 chance of striking Earth on Valentine’s Day, February 14, 2046. That’s a comfortable 99.82% chance that 2023DW will miss Earth. But, still, there’s a lot of chatter about this asteroid.

In the coming days and weeks, we’ll have more observations of 2023DW, which will further refine our knowledge of the asteroid’s orbit. And, as almost always happens with new discoveries like these, we’ll likely learn there’s no chance the asteroid will strike us.

As of Thursday, March 9, 2023, the analysis of its orbit was based on just 62 observations spanning 6.8487 days, through March 4, 2023.

As a thought experiment, Italian astronomer Piero Sicoli did his own math to figure out the odds of impact and the possible location of where the strike would be. He shared his results on Twitter:

#2023DW. With just 3 days of arc, I found about 1 in 400 chance of impact on Feb. 14, 2046 (JPL 1/770). Surely this possibility will soon be ruled out, however, as an exercise, I calculated where the asteroid might fall if this possibility occurred. pic.twitter.com/ldlSYJMvMz

— PS (@Piero_Sicoli) March 2, 2023

Last chance to get a moon phase calendar! Only a few left.

More on asteroid 2023DW

So all of these results are extremely preliminary, with so few observations.

But, that said, as of this moment, astronomers are estimating the asteroid is 165 feet (50 meters) in diameter. (Watch a video of size comparisons in asteroids.) While 50 meters isn’t anything near a planet-ending-sized rock, it would leave a mark in whatever region it hit, if indeed it should strike.

In fact, the Chelyabinsk meteor – which exploded in the air over Russia in 2013 – was a little under half the size of the estimate for 2023DW.

Currently a 1 on the Torino scale

Also, 2023DW currently has a Torino score of 1. That’s an exceedingly rare score. But even the very rare Torino score of 1 (instead of 0) is nothing to be worried about. A score of 1 means:

A routine discovery in which a pass near Earth is predicted that poses no unusual level of danger. Current calculations show a collision is extremely unlikely with no cause for public attention or public concern. New telescopic observations very likely will lead to reassignment to Level 0.

Richard Binzel of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the inventor of the Torino scale, spoke with EarthSky. He explained that it’s not unusual to see the numbers go up as we learn more about the object’s orbit. In these cases, we are just narrowing the line of uncertainty. The closer the asteroid will be to Earth, the more the numbers will go up until we eliminate its possibility of hitting Earth, at which case the asteroid will drop down to category zero.

This has been the case with 2023DW. It originally had around a 1-in-700 chance of hitting Earth, which is now 1-in-560 as we learn more about its orbit. As for when we’ll get the expected “all clear” that 2023DW will definitely not hit Earth, Binzel said:

Optimistically, we’ll know more in a few weeks.

More objects on the Torino scale in the future

Asteroid 2023DW provides a great opportunity for us to understand the Torino scale and how objects move on and off the list. We might as well get comfortable with asteroids temporarily at a Torino score of one or more, because they will become more common in the future, Binzel said. Why is that? It’s not because there are suddenly more of them, it’s because our increasing technology allows us to see these objects that we previously missed. Binzel said we could have up to a dozen objects at a time that are a non-zero on the Torino scale.

Future observatories, such as the Vera Rubin Telescope, the NEO Surveyor and NEOMIR, will be able to spot smaller objects. In fact, our increasing technology has already allowed us to start spotting more of these objects that actually have impacted Earth. As Binzel explained, objects like these are hitting Earth all the time, often over the ocean, we just didn’t know about them beforehand.

Just last month, Krisztián Sárneczky of Hungary discovered an asteroid just hours before it impacted over France, creating a brilliant light show and dropping small meteorites over the countryside. There was another recent case in Canada in November 2022, plus another in March 2022 over the Arctic, which was also discovered by Sárneczky!

So if you’re a fan of asteroids and meteors, the future is looking up.

Bottom line: Astronomers are monitoring the newly discovered asteroid 2023DW. It has a 1-in-560 chance of striking Earth on February 14, 2046. That’s a comfortable 99.82% chance that 2023DW will miss Earth.

Kelly Kizer Whitt

View Articles

About the Author:

Kelly Kizer Whitt has been a science writer specializing in astronomy for more than two decades. She began her career at Astronomy Magazine, and she has made regular contributions to AstronomyToday and the Sierra Club, among other outlets. Her children’s picture book, Solar System Forecast, was published in 2012. She has also written a young adult dystopian novel titled A Different Sky. When she is not reading or writing about astronomy and staring up at the stars, she enjoys traveling to the national parks, creating crossword puzzles, running, tennis, and paddleboarding. Kelly lives with her family in Wisconsin.



[ad_2]

TAGGED: 2023DW, asteroid, Day, earth, space, strike, Valentines

Sign Up For Daily Newsletter

Be keep up! Get the latest breaking news delivered straight to your inbox.
[mc4wp_form]
By signing up, you agree to our Terms of Use and acknowledge the data practices in our Privacy Policy. You may unsubscribe at any time.
Aimee Daly March 9, 2023
Share this Article
Facebook Twitter Email Copy Link Print
Leave a comment Leave a comment

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

SUBSCRIBE NOW

Subscribe to our newsletter to get our newest articles instantly!

[mc4wp_form]

HOT NEWS

SpaceX launches v1.5 satellites from Vandenberg following debut of Starlink v2

Space Flight
March 3, 2023

Is that this black gap jet making stars explode?

Again to Article Listing Greater than twice the anticipated quantity of novae have been discovered…

October 27, 2024

NASA Says Spacecraft Crash Test Successfully Changes Asteroid’s Orbit

CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. (AP) — A spacecraft that plowed into a small, harmless asteroid millions…

October 11, 2022

World-Saving Spacecraft Passes Test

NASA says its DART spacecraft successfully shifted the path of an asteroid. For us earthlings,…

October 11, 2022

YOU MAY ALSO LIKE

Proposed CASTOR Area Telescope Waits on Authorities

The proposed Canadian led Cosmological Superior Survey Telescope for Optical and uv Analysis, generally referred to by its acronym CASTOR,…

News
October 27, 2024

A trio of elusive Native Group galaxies

IC 10 is a dwarf irregular galaxy that’s a member of our Native Group. Intense star formation right here results…

Astronomy
October 27, 2024

Apollo 8 Earthrise picture anniversary, December 24

The long-lasting “Earthrise” picture of Earth showing over the moon’s horizon as seen from the Apollo 8 spacecraft, taken throughout…

Astronomy
December 23, 2023

12 James Webb House Telescope findings that modified our understanding of the universe in 2023

On Christmas morning two years in the past, astronomers and area followers acquired the present they'd been ready for 30…

News
December 23, 2023
We use our own and third-party cookies to improve our services, personalise your advertising and remember your preferences.
  • Jobs Board
  • About Us
  • Contact Us
  • Privacy Policy
  • Exclusives
  • Learn How
  • Support
  • Solutions
  • Terms And Conditions
  • Editorial Policy
  • Marketing Solutions
  • Industry Intelligence

Follow US: 

Space Science Digital

Welcome to spacescience.digital, A source for the latest news and developments in the exciting field of space science. Our blog covers a wide range of topics, from the latest space missions and discoveries to updates on technology and scientific breakthroughs. We are passionate about sharing the wonders of the universe with our readers and providing them with engaging and informative content. Join us on this fascinating journey as we explore the mysteries of space and the frontiers of human knowledge.

© 2024 Space Science Digital. All Rights Reserved.

Removed from reading list

Undo
Welcome Back!

Sign in to your account

Lost your password?