Ewan Wright is a PhD candidate, Interdisciplinary Research, College of British Columbia
Andrew Falle is a analysis coordinator and junior fellow on the Outer House Institute, College of British Columbia
In September 2021, Rwanda introduced that it was planning to launch over 300,000 satellites. Three months later, a Canadian firm, having beforehand launched two dozen CubeSats, mentioned it could launch a further 100,000. Then, a French firm did likewise. And SpaceX, which has already launched round 5,000 satellites, now has plans for over 60,000 extra.
There are at the moment solely about 8,000 lively satellites in orbit. What’s occurring?
Earlier than a satellite tv for pc is launched, a nation state should file its proposed satellite tv for pc system with the Worldwide Telecommunication Union (ITU) to coordinate radiofrequency spectrum on behalf of the satellite tv for pc operator, which might be an organization, college or authorities company.
These filings are made years forward of the satellite tv for pc launch, so the ITU can oversee coordination between completely different satellite tv for pc operators and be sure that new satellite tv for pc indicators don’t drown current ones out.
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A million filings
In a brand new Coverage Discussion board article revealed in Science, we discovered that, between 2017 and 2022, international locations collectively made filings for over a million satellites throughout greater than 300 separate programs of a number of satellites working collectively, often known as constellations.
This creates two intertwined issues. Both many of those satellites will really be launched, inflicting an environmental disaster by way of 1000’s of rocket launches into more and more crowded Earth orbits, or operators are submitting for extra satellites than they intend to launch, maybe with a view to hedging their bets, getting investor consideration or promoting the parts of radio spectrum for revenue.
A better look reveals that the latter choice is extra seemingly.
Congested orbits
If even 10 per cent of the filed-for satellites launch, low Earth orbit would grow to be congested with over 100,000 further satellites. Collisions between satellites would generate house particles, which might in flip trigger additional collisions.
Reentering satellites would fritter away within the environment, doubtlessly affecting the local weather, whereas surviving items of particles would possibly strike individuals or plane. We already face these dangers at present, however they might improve by an order of magnitude.
The issue could also be extra mundane, that means that satellite tv for pc operators are fiddling the numbers. Take E-House, the French firm. It’s behind each the 337,320-satellite constellation filed by way of Rwanda in 2021, and a 116,640-satellite constellation filed by way of France in 2023.
Regardless of these formidable filings, the corporate’s CEO, Greg Wyler, mentioned it’s planning for “a minimum of 30,000 satellites,” whereas its director of product growth talked about “only a few thousand satellites.” Are any of those numbers actual?
Nations of comfort
There are extra indicators that firms are trying to recreation the ITU system.
OneWeb, which has 634 satellites in orbit, has made filings for six,118 extra satellites by way of three international locations: Mexico, France and the UK.
SpaceX has made filings by way of the United States, Norway, Germany and now Tonga. It’s unclear why that is taking place, however all these states have completely different administrative guidelines — and costs — related to satellite tv for pc filings.
Within the world transport trade, flag-of-convenience governments register ships for firms that search decrease working prices by way of looser laws and lax enforcement. Over 44 per cent of the world’s ships by tonnage are registered in simply three international locations: Panama, Liberia and the Marshall Islands. These ships traditionally have worse security information and poorer labour circumstances.
Tonga, now dwelling to SpaceX’s October 2023 submitting for 29,998 satellites, has filed for satellites earlier than. Within the Nineteen Eighties, it filed for 16 satellite tv for pc slots, finally gaining 9 slots which it promptly leased to international operators.
Different satellite tv for pc operators weren’t blissful; one even moved a satellite tv for pc into one in all Tonga’s slots in protest. But Tonga made thousands and thousands of {dollars} by way of the leases.
Updating the foundations
The latest megaconstellation filings are of unprecedented measurement, elevating a number of challenges. The ITU goals to stop interference between satellites by modelling their sign energy output, and the proliferation of satellites and the splitting of filings between completely different states are making that tough.
The ITU — which is a United Nations company that predates the UN, making it the oldest company within the group — has well-established processes for updating its guidelines. The 193 member states meet each three to 4 years at World Radiocommunication Conferences, the place new guidelines are debated and adopted.
In 2019, member states agreed to create “milestones” for the deployment of satellite tv for pc constellations: launch 10 per cent of satellites inside two years of the primary launch, 50 per cent inside 5 years and the entire constellation inside seven years. Nevertheless, the primary satellite tv for pc may be launched as much as seven years after the submitting, giving firms appreciable time and adaptability.
The ITU ought to think about dashing up this course of. It might additionally introduce charges that disincentivise massive or speculative filings.
Environmental duty
The Secretary Basic of the ITU, Doreen Bogdan-Martin, has mentioned the ITU is more and more prioritizing house sustainability. Nevertheless it should steadiness that aim with its mandate, which focuses on radio spectrum administration.
From Nov. 20 to Dec. 15, 2023, the ITU member states will convene in Dubai for this 12 months’s World Radiocommunication Convention. However don’t anticipate radical adjustments this 12 months; any proposals launched now are unlikely to be finalised earlier than the following convention in 2027.
And who is aware of what SpaceX, E-House and different firms will rise up to earlier than then?
This text is republished from The Dialog beneath a Artistic Commons license. Learn the authentic article.
The views expressed are these of the writer and don’t essentially mirror the views of the writer.
